Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland by Peter O'Donnell (25 March 2022)

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 March 2022

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal values, with a higher anomaly until Sunday, then a gradual colder trend to mid-week. It may actually end up below normal by a week from now. Guidance is starting to diverge on how cold it may become by about the last day of this interval.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal, mostly towards the end of this interval. There is also some spread in the guidance on this trend, but it should remain dry to Monday in most places.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.
-- Light winds to Monday, then a moderate east to northeast wind flow expected. Some sources have more of a west to northwest flow at that point.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 5 to 8 C and rather extensive mist or fog by morning. Any locations that remain clear could drop a few degrees lower to about 1-3 C.

WEEKEND will continue partly cloudy and warm with some areas of persistent cloud near south coast. Highs 15-18 C and overnight lows generally around 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be slightly cooler although continued dry and partly cloudy to sunny, a slight east wind will add some cooling effects in Leinster, with lows around 4-7 C and highs further inland 13-16 C, 11-14 C eastern counties.

TUESDAY will be cooler again with some threat of cloudier skies, possibly leading to scattered outbreaks of light rain, and northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Guidance is beginning to diverge and models have switched sides in the dispute too, the other outcome being suggested is a slower break down of the mild, dry weather although not a complete absence of cooler temperatures.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY have moved into the "wait and see" column with some guidance showing cold air flooding in from the north, other sources giving more of a quick return to unsettled westerly flow which would be several degrees milder. So there is some chance of seeing temperatures falling into the 5-8 C range with sleety rain possible in north to northeast winds, or a milder unsettled regime with rain and 10-13 C. With the models tending to switch roles in this ongoing "debate" I am finding it hard to pick the form horse and will just say either/or.

From that uncertain point, the next step would be either a gradual relaxation of the colder regime through several days of early April, or a series of frontal disturbances embedded in an ongoing westerly flow. That option looks rather energetic at times so it could produce gusty winds and thunderstorms embedded around 2-4 April if that's the outcome that prevails.