Tintern Abbey and River, Wexford.
TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 July --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values, as they begin to fall somewhat closer to average after Saturday and slightly below average by the middle of next week.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal once it resumes around Friday-Saturday in most areas. Some parts of west Ulster may see as much as 100 to 125 per cent of normal (the heavier rains in the north will be from Monday to Wednesday).
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent below normal values.
-- Winds will continue quite light and mostly calm at night to the weekend but will pick up to more moderate speeds, even rather blustery at times by middle of next week in a developing westerly flow then.
FORECASTS
TONIGHT will be cloudy and warm in the south and west, partly cloudy and warm in the north and east, with lows 15 to 19 C.
By FRIDAY more cloud will develop and some showers and thunderstorms will follow in parts of Munster, while other regions remain dry and very warm. Highs 24 to 28 C, after morning lows of 15 to 19 C.
On SATURDAY showers and thunderstorms will spread a bit further north and east, possibly reaching Dublin and some parts of the midlands, but they will be more isolated further north. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C. Although there is a chance of showers it may become rather hit and miss with the main activity being directed more towards southern Britain on later guidance, so some places may have a drier outcome than expected, unless there's a further wobble in the trajectory of the heavier showers. Parts of southern England could have some torrential downpours by the latest available guidance.
SUNDAY will see a return to generally dry and partly cloudy to sunny conditions, in a somewhat more temperate air mass with highs in the 22 to 26 C range, morning lows 12 to 15 C. This is now expected to break down as early as Monday with increasing cloud overnight (Sun-Mon) leading to outbreaks of rain by Monday, highs near 19 C.
By TUESDAY this more significant change will continue, as a regime of mostly cloudy and unsettled weather deepens its grip, with stronger winds developing, and temperatures falling back into the 17 to 20 C range. By about WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY of next week there will be fairly blustery conditions and relatively chilly temperatures in the 15 to 18 C range, with frequent showers on westerly winds. This will seem like quite a large change after the heat of this past week. There could be at least a few showers most days from then to the end of the month.
Peter for IWO.