Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland (14 June 2021)

 TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with the trend gradually cooler.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values (possibly more if some guidance is correct, the uncertainty lies near the end of the forecast interval).
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Generally light to moderate westerly winds turning more northerly at times.


TODAY will be less humid and somewhat cooler with partly cloudy skies -- a few showers are possible although the most active front has moved through overnight (and it wasn't very active). Moderate west-southwest breezes, highs 18 to 20 C in the south and east, 14 to 17 C west and north.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows around 10 C.

TUESDAY will start out bright and quite warm again in the east, as highs reach 21 C or perhaps a bit higher in some places. A front will be moving into the western half of the country with occasional rain likely, 3 to 7 mm amounts are expected. Highs further west 16 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will become slightly cooler again with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and isolated showers likely, with winds turning westerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr, perhaps stronger at times in the vicinity of Donegal Bay. Lows about 9 C and highs about 16 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and reasonably pleasant days with some sunshine and temperatures in the range of 15 to 18 C. It could be a bit warmer in parts of west Munster due to a northeast wind flow coming in from the land for a change. Valentia may be above 20 C in this sort of pattern.

By next weekend, we have a choice of outlooks depending on which guidance you take. The American GFS model had been showing a strong frontal system coming in for several days now, but has changed that outlook this morning as they now show the wedge of high pressure staying stronger and deflecting most of that front to the south, which would have the effect of continuing the partly cloudy spell with northeast winds turning more to the east. This would be a rather cool pattern for Leinster and a bit warmer further west (14 to 18 C). The European model is still going for a more vigorous frontal system that would bring considerable rainfall and mostly cloudy, increasingly cool weather in the weekend interval. Can't say that I have any strong hunch which model will prove more accurate with this, hopefully they will agree with each other on some solution by tomorrow. The outlook for the week beyond next weekend remains rather cool and unsettled in any case.

Peter for IWO.

Photo: Beara Peninsula, Cork