TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 May 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, a blend of days
being 1-2 below and nights near or slightly above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, with parts of the northwest possibly closer to average.
-- Sunshine will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values but
amounts will be variable from place to place as slow moving cloud
systems compete with dry slots offering considerable sunshine. The
midlands may see more sunshine than other regions.
-- Wind speeds will be generally rather light to moderate.
FORECASTS
TONIGHT will see a clearing trend again with showers more isolated, lows 1 to 4 C.
THURSDAY will have new outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, the
central counties seem most at risk for heavier amounts. A slight
northerly breeze will feel a bit cooler than these past few days, highs
10 to 14 C.
FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and outbreaks of showery rain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.
SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and showery outbreaks of rain with lows near 7 C and highs around 14 C.
SUNDAY will bring cloudy skies with a few breaks, and heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY will be overcast with rain becoming heavy at times, lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
The outlook for next week is for this unsettled weather regime to
continue with further pulses of heavy rainfall likely towards Thursday
20th and the following weekend. Any improvements later in the month may
be rather faint.
My general outlook for summer is fairly simple, this unsettled and
rather cool pattern seems likely to persist into parts of June and there
could be slow improvement through late June and July with a good chance
for the situation to reverse to warm and dry weather at times in late
July and parts of August. So the key word there is improving, but at the
same time the rather localized nature of the disturbed weather the past
few days points to the difficulty of establishing anything much more
than a general trend, specific locations could vary in all time scales
as we saw yesterday where some enjoyed a lot of sunshine.
Peter for IWO