-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, although today will likely be near or even slightly above.
-- Rainfall will be about 25 to 50 per cent of normal, the heavier amounts being more likely in the north and west.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values, despite a lot of cloud mid-week. Wind speeds will be light today and part of Sunday, moderate to strong at times the rest of the interval, and mainly from a northwest to north direction.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny with some patchy cloud developing near coasts in the northwest later on, but for most the only cloud will be increasing high cloud, perhaps leading to a nice sunset. Highs 11 to 15 C, this time the warmth will likely be more concentrated in the inland south and east as a light westerly flow sets in.
TONIGHT will continue rather clear in many places, with the increasing high cloud somewhat thicker over western and northern counties. Lows -2 to +3 C.
EASTER SUNDAY will start out fairly pleasant and the weather in at least the southern half of the country will be similar to today until mid-afternoon. Further north, cloud will increase faster and showers may develop in the afternoon. A sharp cold front is expected to race through all regions after sunset, and timing at present is around 8 p.m. for Ulster, to 2 a.m. for the south coast. Shortly after the front passes, temperatures will begin to fall off sharply after highs of 11 to 14 C. The overnight period to Monday morning will be windy and much colder with mixed wintry showers developing, winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near exposed coasts.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered wintry showers, tending to be more vigorous in parts of Ulster and Connacht, and prone to falls of accumulating snow on hills there. Morning lows near -1 C then afternoon highs unseasonably cold at 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add several degrees of chill factor and temperatures may fall back during and after any heavier wintry showers.
TUESDAY will also be cold with passing wintry showers but perhaps not as windy with northwest to north winds of about 40 to 60 km/hr. Morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs near 6 C.
WEDNESDAY will become slightly milder with skies mostly cloudy, although a few brighter intervals possible, as well as scattered outbreaks of light rain mostly found over northern counties. Winds will back to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.
THURSDAY will continue to feel the influence of this weak warmer wedge for at least the morning as latest guidance has slowed the arrival of a second cold air mass, but northern counties could still get into that during the afternoon and evening, so for those areas, highs near 7 C could be replaced with colder readings by late in the day. Further south it will likely get back to around 9 or 10 C again after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. Passing showers could be rather heavy in a few places especially near any frontal boundary that forms across the north.
By FRIDAY and SATURDAY the entire country will be back into a second cold air mass that looks just about equal to the first one in terms of potential for low temperatures and wintry showers, however, it also looks a bit more unsettled with more of a cyclonic influence so that perhaps there will actually be more widespread wintry showers in this second interval, temperatures similar to the first (highs 5 to 8 C at best, some frosts at night).
Guidance beyond about next weekend is probably not very reliable at this point and it tends to suggest a cycle of weak warming intervals and reloading of the northerly chill at various points going forward, the timing is probably the least reliable aspect of that.
Peter for IWO