Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland (28 March 2021)

TRENDS for the week of 28 Mar to 3 Apr 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values. The colder push expected some time around the middle to end of the week has been pushed back a few days and this milder trend may persist even into the Easter weekend although with the changes from day to day on model runs, nothing should be taken as guaranteed yet.
-- Rainfall will likely average about 50 per cent of normal in a few parts of the west but otherwise closer to 25 per cent.
-- Sunshine will improve through the week and may end up above normal eventually. Winds have peaked now and will be mostly moderate or near the average range for most of this interval.


will feature some drizzle, fog and mist in some areas, and mild overnight lows of 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy with any lingering drizzle or rain increasingly confined to the northwest. Moderate south to southwest breezes and very mild with highs 13 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will continue very mild with some hazy sunshine, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

The interval from WEDNESDAY to EASTER SUNDAY is now subject to a changed outlook in general with models starting to delay the arrival of the much colder air to the night of the 4th-5th. High pressure that will now apparently rule the roost for a while is somewhat cooler than the very mild spell ahead but not that cool either, with the full sunshine of early April to help out, highs could be in the comfortable 9 to 14 C range with northeast breezes in some areas holding temperatures down somewhat. I am not entirely confident this is the last large-scale change the models may make and so would caution that a colder outlook could return to the scene, but for now this is what the guidance is telling us (I am but the messenger etc ) ... this settled spell should be fairly cool at night once the higher pressure sets in and some slight frosts or patchy shallow fog in valleys can be expected towards dawn most days in this interval.

The same charts that have delayed the cold spell have also made it even more ferocious when it does arrive, which is not something that I entirely accept given this history of frequent change, but be aware that according to global models which have cost a lot more money than you or I will ever see, record breaking cold will advance from the highest latitudes that money can buy (they run out at the north pole) and swoop down on Britain and Ireland around the end of the Easter weekend and hold sway for Monday, Tuesday (5-6 Apr) before slowly relenting. That could mean temperatures down around record low values for those dates and at least mixed wintry showers (if any of it actually happens). It will be an interesting few days for weather watchers and all we can say at this early stage is, proof is in the pudding so to speak, that could all look a bit over-cooked by the time it's supposed to arrive.

Peter for IWO