-- Temperatures will average about 1-2 deg above normal values. It will be turning a lot colder near the end of this interval, but touching values of near 4-5 deg above normal Monday and possibly Tuesday (at least in the south).
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal in the north and west, to 25 per cent in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, although some improvements due by Monday-Tuesday in that regard, and it will be rather windy over the weekend with more average wind speeds most of the week.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy and while it starts out quite cold, slowly rising temperatures all day will peak by this evening at 10-12 C. Winds southwest 30-50 km/hr will increase later to 50-80 km/hr and some gusts to around 100 km/hr on exposed coasts by evening. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely in the west and north with some heavier bursts by late in the afternoon. This rain may be quite patchy over the inland south and east and it may remain dry for some south and east coast locations.
TONIGHT will continue rather windy and mild with temperatures generally near 10 C, occasional light rain and winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.
SUNDAY will be a breezy and mild day with further outbreaks of light rain, mostly in west-central to inland northern counties where 5-10 mm is possible. Further south, a few brighter intervals are likely and the rain may be quite intermittent. Highs 11-14 C for most, 8-11 C north.
MONDAY will become partly cloudy and very mild in many areas, with some further rain likely in parts of the west and north for a time, and moderate southwest winds continuing. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C.
TUESDAY the push of colder air looks a bit weaker now which may mean a further day of mild weather in the south and some central counties; the colder air mass may eventually drop temperatures a few degrees across the north, so starting out with readings of 10-13 C in most areas, rising slightly across the south to 14-16 C, falling slowly in the north to around 7 C. A few isolated showers are likely with weak frontal troughs moving south late in the day.
WEDNESDAY is likely to see a further gradual push of cooler air but high pressure ridging across the country may prevent much disturbed weather, just a slow infiltration of the cooler air, with lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C except possibly a bit colder in Ulster.
THURSDAY to SATURDAY as the Easter weekend sets in, some uncertainty as to the details, probably quite cool with the more northerly high starting to dominate and spreading cooler air in from the northeast, some guidance still showing a more disturbed showery flow but on balance, most likely to be just isolated showers and some could be wintry at least on higher ground. Highs most likely in the 5 to 10 C range, with slight frosts returning. Some chance of it being either a bit milder near the south coast, or alternatively somewhat colder in some northern areas than the range above.
By EASTER SUNDAY most guidance still going for rather cold and increasingly unsettled weather. So for now we'll say a rough estimate of near 5-6 C and the risk of mixed wintry showers in north to northeast winds.
Some guidance is suggesting that this rather cold air is now just a leading edge of a really cold air mass that may try to push south out of the arctic regions, which may lead to stronger northerly winds and a higher risk of mixed wintry forms of precipitation by about Monday-Tuesday (5-6 Apr). After that, the Atlantic seems determined to push back which could lead to some blocked low pressure systems swirling around near the south coast, which could produce unpleasant cold rain if not wintry mixtures. Once this colder regime sets in, it could take a week or two for a return to more normal spring-like weather, so enjoy this brief warm spell coming up.