Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland (13 February 2021)

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 150% to 250% of normal, heaviest in the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values.


TODAY ... Snow across parts of the east and north will gradually mix with sleet, ice pellets and then rain, with temperatures slowly rising to around 4-6 C by late in the day, winds southeast 50-80 km/hr easing somewhat by afternoon. Some parts of Ulster can still expect a further 10 cms snow with the changeover there coming during the mid-day to afternoon hours. Becoming rather foggy over any areas of lying snow once somewhat milder air arrives. Poor driving conditions can be expected in most parts of Ulster, Leinster and Connacht until the changeover is fully established and even then strong wind gusts, fog and ponding of runoff may create road hazards that will also be present in the rest of Ireland. The rest of the country having already warmed to around 3-5 C with rain, will see further outbreaks of heavy rain at times with 15-30 mm potential, winds southerly at about 70-110 km/hr but easing slightly later. Flood risk especially in vicinity of streams flowing out of higher terrain where snow could be melting. Temperatures around 8-10 C by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and occasionally wet with moderate southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C north and east, to 7 C south and west. Remaining snow melting steadily, some areas of dense fog likely in the north especially over higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, flood potential high in some areas. highs 10-13 C, winds southerly 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near coasts, 15-30 mm rainfall in some parts of the south.

MONDAY ... Moderate southwest winds again becoming strong for a time late in the day, occasional rain, lows near 5 and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southwest winds, lows near 4 and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler mid-week with temperatures closer to 7 C daytime and 2 C overnight, occasional rain with some sleet on hills, then milder again by Friday-Saturday with southwest winds continuing most of the time.

The pattern after this coming week looks broadly similar for the rest of February with passing fronts, generally mild temperatures and occasional strong wind gusts. There are hints of a much colder interval near the end of the month or around the first of March.

Peter O'Donnell for IWO