Long Range Forecast For Ireland (24 February 2021)

TRENDS for the week of 24 Feb to 2 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (which at this point are around 10-11 C daytimes, 3-4 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal, and most of that will be today and tomorrow with a welcome dry spell looming for the rest of this seven day interval (not totally dry in the west where small amounts could fall on a couple of days).
-- Sunshine will be at least normal and possibly as much as 50% above in some places, away from what may be cloudier south coast counties.


TONIGHT will see partial clearing and lows 2 to 5 C. There may still be isolated outbreaks of light rain in a few spots.

THURSDAY will be breezy and somewhat colder with highs 8-10 C. A few passing showers are likely in most places and they may be locally and briefly heavy in the west to central counties. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become much less breezy and it should be a pleasant day with near average temperatures of 2-4 C in the morning and 8-11 C in the afternoon. Some sunshine is likely but a very weak front will be dying out near the west coast by afternoon and could bring at least full cloud cover for a time if not a bit of drizzly light rain.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY look settled and partly cloudy, highs both days near 10 C after morning slight frosts in some areas, and more sunshine is likely further north as a weak southeast breeze may be bringing in cloud layers from the Celtic Sea originating from a weak disturbance embedded in the high pressure area over northwest France. That weak system may eventually drift up over west Munster by Monday with local showers, otherwise this high should hold on to control of the weather pattern for a few days into March before a more variable pattern emerges. Some guidance is back to showing a cold outbreak towards the second week of March, what I take from that is that very warm weather is probably not the most likely next step after the high, would bet that it stays fairly bland and near normal for a while as the flow over North America is somewhat neutral in terms of firing up the jet stream.

Peter O'DOnnell for IWO