Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland (28 January 2021)

TRENDS for the week of 28 Jan to 3 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal, possibly less in the south, a little better in Ulster.


will start out mostly cloudy with any remnant drizzle in the north gradually ending, otherwise, dry to mid-day or early afternoon for many, then intervals of light rain, and gradually increasing southwest winds in the south coast counties (less windy further north). Highs 8-11 C except 4-7 C in the north.

TONIGHT will see a few further outbreaks of light rain and the moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr will gradually ease near the south coast, lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will have a few dry intervals, as winds turn more southeast to easterly, then rain will arrive again in the south, west and central counties, spreading to Leinster by late afternoon or early evening. This rain could start to change over to sleet or wet snow on high ground because somewhat colder air will be gradually feeding into the rainfall but closer to the south coast it will remain 8 or 9 C and 15-30 mm rain can be expected there. Temperatures further north may slowly fall off to around 5 C at lower elevations, 2-4 C on higher ground.

SATURDAY some rain will continue mixed with sleet or wet snow on higher ground in some parts of the south; it will likely be dry but mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals further north. Temperatures will vary from 7 C in the south to 2-5 C in the north.

SUNDAY another weak system will try to push the colder air back to the north but it may take until Sunday night before there is much change in the frontal zones, so that a cold rain in the south may trend more towards sleet or wet snow in central counties and if it reaches far enough north, measurable snowfalls are possible in south Ulster. Temperatures will remain around 4 to 7 C for most, 2 to 5 C north, and 10-20 mm rain or liquid equivalent can be expected.

MONDAY the milder air may have one last attempt to push north, and may succeed briefly but then the system will weaken and colder air will seep back into the north later in the day. Some rain at times with fog likely, highs near 7 to 9 C in the south, 3 to 6 C north.

By TUESDAY a somewhat cooler easterly flow will develop, and this could have some mixed wintry showers although it looks fairly settled, with highs near 5 C.

The pattern for the rest of next week looks rather cloudy with east winds and perhaps a few more minor skirmishes in the south between somewhat milder air and the gradually dominating colder air. This could lead to a few intervals of sleety rain or wet snow. However, the big weather story may be what happens towards the end of next week, as most guidance seems to be tracking similar outcomes with much colder air settling into northern Europe and then gradually extending its influence over most of Britain, with Ireland perhaps in line for a visit too by about Sunday 7th February, and if so this could be quite a cold interval with snowfall potential especially near the east coast. By no means is this certain to happen (based on usual model reliability, about a 60-70 per cent chance however).

 -- Peter O'Donnell is Irish Weather Online's Senor Forecaster.