Long Range Weather Forecast For Ireland (26 January 2021)


TRENDS for the week of 26 Jan to 1 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, although closer to average in the north.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 25% above normal values in some parts of the western and central counties, otherwise close to normal or a little below in some places.
-- Sunshine will average only 50% of normal and even that may be optimistic.


TODAY will slowly turn milder, but rather cool air near the surface will persist for part of the day in the east and north, so that readings may stall at about 4-6 C there, further south, more easily reaching 8-11 C. Occasional rain will be heavy in a few parts of east Munster and later into the midlands. Further north it could mix with wet snow or turn to sleet at times, especially this morning.

TONIGHT will be foggy with light rain. The milder air will stop pushing north and so it will remain close to 4 C in parts of Ulster and north Leinster, while staying in the 6-8 C range further south.

WEDNESDAY will see outbreaks of heavier rain across central counties, and moderate to strong winds at times near the south coast (southwest 50-80 km/hr). Less windy further north, and still some tendency for cooler air to hang on near the surface in Ulster, keeping temperatures around 5 to 7 C there; otherwise highs will reach 10-12 C.

THURSDAY will turn slightly cooler with further outbreaks of rain, or sleet in the north, temperatures will settle back to around 7 C in the south and 3 C in Ulster.

FRIDAY will become colder with mixtures of cloud and sunshine, in northeast winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Any precipitation is likely to be mixed and wintry but only small amounts are currently indicated despite that wind direction, the air mass seems a bit too stable to produce much shower activity. Highs will be 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY could stay fairly cold and there's a slight risk of sleet or wet snow in a few spots, although once again, guidance is leaning towards a dry and stable air mass that will eventually begin to yield to milder air by the overnight hours. Highs once again 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY another mild spell looms with rain or drizzle, potential for about 10-20 mm rainfalls each day. Highs 8 to 11 C.

By TUESDAY (2nd Feb) it may begin to turn colder in stages and some guidance is more aggressive with this colder trend, if that guidance is correct there may be some localized snowfalls as early as mid-week. However we are into one of those slow motion advances of colder Russian air masses into northern Europe that can confuse the models for days on end, so the basic theme is going to be waiting for clearer indications of a colder spell that seems quite likely to come some time in early to mid February.

Peter O'Donnell for IWO