The coming 10 days will bring temperatures 1.0c to 1.5c below average as much cooler Polar Maritime Airmass becomes established in a west to northwest airflow. Indications are that high pressure introducing an Polar Continental influence will become established towards the end of the forecast period bringing drier and calmer weather.
The below animation of the ECMWF output (Meteociel.fr) shows that much of the coming week will feature moderate winds and showers across the country with a longer spell of rain on Wednesday as a front tracks across Ireland.
Later next week, high pressure rises north from the Azores bringing in more settled conditions. Wintry showers, most likely sleet, are likely only across mountains as temperatures at ground level peak at 6c to 9c. However, it will feel pleasantly mild in any sunshine despite the single digit temperatures. Overnight frosts will be increasingly likely in the slacker winds and drier conditions.
 |
| ECMWF output from 5 November 2019. |
The below animation highlights the upper air temperatures (850 hpa) and how our weather will become calmer and drier overall. The 850 hpa is the temperature approximately 1.5 km above sea level, usually just above the boundary layer. At this level the diurnal (daily) cycle in temperature is generally negligible.
 |
| ECMWF output from 5 November 2019. |
The different airmasses that effect Ireland's weather can be seen in the below graphic, provided by the UK Met Office.
 |
| Image UKMO |
The predictable tabloid hysteria at any sign of an easterly or northeasterly airflow has already raised its head during the past 24 hours (Daily Express - Snow forecast as Scandinavian blast sees temperatures plummet to -4C). The real story of the the next 10 days however is the Pest from the West rather than the Beast from the East.