Hurricane Joaquin - Latest forecast for Ireland

Image c/o NOAA
Significant uncertainty remains in relation to the projected track of Hurricane Joaquin which could affect Ireland's weather this coming weekend.


Up to Monday night, the system was forecast to track well to the south of Ireland towards The Bay of Biscay.

The UKMO, GEM and GFS weather models have since however, pushed the system further north towards Ireland bringing wet and windy conditions to the country late Saturday and during Sunday.

The latest advisory from NOAA/US Weather Service has the remnants of Hurricane Joaquin over Ireland early Sunday. By then, the system is expected to have lost a significant amount of energy due to its journey over the record cold North Atlantic waters and a significant windstorm is highly unlikely.

Met √Čireann says: "There is currently too much uncertainty associated with the track of the storm to make definitive statements regarding the weekend but the possibility of a windy episode on Saturday and in to Sunday can not be ruled out at this point".



The sea swell is also not expected to be significant in Ireland. See below chart from magicseaweed.com.

The ECM, the computer model used by Met √Čireann, has the remnants of Joaquin tracking to the south of Ireland towards southwestern France and Northern Spain. See below chart from Meteociel.com.
 
Should this outcome verify then Ireland will enjoy calmer, drier weather as high pressure builds.

In all scenarios, computer models agree that next week will see high pressure bring more settled weather. The setup in turn expected to introduce cooler weather across Ireland and Britain.

Joaquin pictured north of Bermuda on Tuesday. Image aviationweather.gov