ADVANCE ADVISORY Snow, Ireland - 20-22 January 2013

Met √Čireann has issued snow warnings for 1-5 cm accumulations for Dublin Airport from 7.30pm and Casement from 5.35pm. The threat of wintry showers tonight extends to eastern counties of Leinster and Ulster. Meanwhile, our advisory for outbreaks of sleet and snow in parts of Munster and western Connacht tonight remains in force. Falls of 3 to 6 cm possible. Incidentally, Kerry Airport is forecasting sleet and snow from 7pm. 

Since early last week (see HERE and HERE), The Meteo Times has been monitoring the potential for snowfall in parts of the country on Sunday night arising from a low pressure system tracking to the south of Ireland. We are also monitoring the potential for another band of rain, sleet and snow to affect parts of Munster in particular on Monday night. However, confidence in relation to the latter event remains low due to disagreement amongst the main computer models at this point (see below for more).

At the moment, the highest snow risk for Sunday evening through the early hours of Monday pertains largely to Munster, with a lower risk of light snow affecting parts of western Connacht, and southern and western parts of Leinster. The position of the slider low (see below graphic) tracking SE off our southern coast is subject to change and consequently, the snow risk area is subject to change. We will provide updates on any changes here and on our  Facebook and Twitter accounts.

The rain bearing front will produce sleet in coastal areas of Cork and Kerry tomorrow afternoon/evening and this will turn readily to snow further inland during Sunday evening/night with some sizeable accumulations (5-10cm) in the mountains of Kerry and Cork. Accumulating snow (2-5cm) is likely at lower levels in the risk area outlined above, with southern Connacht and west Leinster seeing smaller amounts (1-3cm) compared to Munster. Rain or sleet in coastal areas of the south and west may turn to snow as the band of precipitation sinks back southeastwards early on Monday.

Click to enlarge.
A 'Slider Low' is explained in this illustration from British-based forecaster Matt Hugo.

During Monday morning, sleet and snow showers will continue to affect eastern parts of Ulster and coastal counties in Leinster with some accumulations there, particularly on high ground. Some more persistent rain/sleet/snow will affect northern and eastern parts of Ulster during Monday afternoon.

On Monday night, there is a risk of another band of rain and sleet pushing northwards over Munster and possibly into Leinster and Connacht bringing further scattered outbreaks of sleet and snow and leading to further accumulations, particularly on high ground. The below 18Z GFS output (graphic by illustrates the areas at risk of seeing snowfall. The colour pink relates to 100% risk of snowfall for the highlighted areas IF the model output verifies. However, as other computer models are not so keen on the progression of the system beyond the south coast, confidence in such an event remains low at this point. Later model runs are likely to present a rather different scenario. Again, we will provide updates on any changes here and on our  Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Click to enlarge.

The Meteo Times daily long range weather forecast contains further details in relation to the coming week’s weather in Ireland, as well as details on the ongoing cold spell in Britain. Click here to view.

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Article written by TMT's Mark Dunphy