ADVISORY - Thunderstorms, Southern Coastal Counties

AREAS AT RISK : Southern coastal counties (Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Wexford).
WEATHER WATCH PERIOD: 1300- 2100 hrs.

As a frontal system continues to move northeast, there is potential for instability to occur with any good surface heating. Broad thunderstorm activity is possible if this potential convective energy (CAPE ) can be tapped into under clearing skies . Torrential rain, frequent lightning and large hail are possible. Due to considerable low level shear, any thunderstorms will be capable of producing funnel clouds within the risk area.

Motorists are advised to drive with extreme caution during any thunderstorm due to the risks posed by flash flooding.

This situation is dynamic and is conditioned with a good clearance to induce surface heating to create the instability needed, hence this is a WATCH and not a warning. However, those living in in southern coastal counties of Ireland should at least be prepared if they are planning to travel today.

Storm Forecast from estofex
 "... W/SW-UK, parts of Ireland and parts of NW France ... A strong 995 hPa depression moves from Ireland to W-UK. Attendant well structured cold front enters the forecast area from the west during the day with a slow eastward motion forecast. A pronounced dry slot overtakes the cold front and assists in an active thunderstorm period mainly within the highlighted 50% lightning area. Those storms evolve within an environment with strong directional shear (e.g. 15 m/s LL shear and 200 J/kg SRH-1) and LCLs well below 1000 m. A few tornado events are possible next to strong wind gusts and marginal hail. The severe risk decreases after sunset although some surface based convection may persist over N-France. Strong shear still supports an isolated better organized thunderstorm event with strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado event. Hence the level 1 was expanded all the way to NE France.

An occlusion wraps around the depression's center with an augmented probability for training thunderstorm activity mainly over S-Ireland. Heavy rain will be the main hazard as modified subtropical air wraps around the center of the depression." - estofex

Alert issued By Ian Carruthers, The Meteo Times (TMT)

RADAR WATCH (Satellite/Rain/Lightning)
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