Peter O'Donnell, IWO Forecaster: The situation ranges from very windy with moderate damage potential north to quite windy with limited damage potential south. There again, if you live in a deep river valley running north-south somewhere in northern Ireland, probably won't feel much more than 45 kts peak, but if you're on a hill in the south could see 65 kts. So your exposure is also important as well as the region you're living in.
Every storm has its own irregular features so there will be an element of nowcasting to this, and some of the wind potential will be contained in any squally shower bands that form -- you can anticipate that these might tend to come in through gaps in the topography and quite often north Clare and Galway get hit by these, so would stress that Clare is just about as much at risk of damaging wind gusts as Connacht. Often the max winds in these storms stay in the range of 964 to 976 mbs rather than closer to the storm centre. But given the track I think Malin Head will win the top gust prize.
One other thought, be aware that there will be a secondary wind peak from the front coming through late tonight, so if you notice gusts to say 40 kt then they die off to the 30 kt range, that won't indicate a weakening of the storm, we're expecting that brief weakening of the wind right after the frontal passage and the first part of the clearing trend. Winds will gradually ramp up as the stronger gradient near the low centre approaches. Would predict that the strongest winds will be 3-6 p.m.
Peak wind gusts recorded tomorrow afternoon will likely be in this sort of range:
Every storm has its own irregular features so there will be an element of nowcasting to this, and some of the wind potential will be contained in any squally shower bands that form -- you can anticipate that these might tend to come in through gaps in the topography and quite often north Clare and Galway get hit by these, so would stress that Clare is just about as much at risk of damaging wind gusts as Connacht. Often the max winds in these storms stay in the range of 964 to 976 mbs rather than closer to the storm centre. But given the track I think Malin Head will win the top gust prize.
One other thought, be aware that there will be a secondary wind peak from the front coming through late tonight, so if you notice gusts to say 40 kt then they die off to the 30 kt range, that won't indicate a weakening of the storm, we're expecting that brief weakening of the wind right after the frontal passage and the first part of the clearing trend. Winds will gradually ramp up as the stronger gradient near the low centre approaches. Would predict that the strongest winds will be 3-6 p.m.
Peak wind gusts recorded tomorrow afternoon will likely be in this sort of range:
MALIN HEAD 100 kt
BELMULLET 95 kt
MACE HEAD 84 kt
SHANNON 70 kt
VALENTIA 72 kt
CORK 60 kt
INLAND 55 kt
SOUTHEAST 58 kt
CASEMENT 63 kt
DUBLIN 65 kt
ALDERGROVE 65 kt
Latest on predicted wind speeds here.
Click on images to enlarge.
